This is a magazine about the eternal, that is, about money. Is it worth investing in precious metals? How much will silver cost per year

Investments in silver, gold, platinum and other precious metals became one of the most reliable tools for preserving and increasing capital in 2019. The situation with quotes promises to be ambiguous and volatile, but with the instability of the financial world, this is the best solution.

Investors are reluctant to invest in silver, despite the fact that its investment value is not lower than that of gold. The economic vulnerability of the metal, artificially low prices and underestimation in the investment field create contradictions that confuse potential investors even more. American experts argue that the "Silver Age" will come, and the price per gram of silver will be comparable to the price of gold. Or the dynamics of prices will rush to the height, to Fibonacci itself, which is associated with the destruction of silver resources on earth.

The growth in silver quotes, promised by analysts in 2019, is in no hurry to come true. The only forecast that the current situation can make is the absence of a forecast. The complex geopolitical environment, financial instability and economic regression cast doubt on any point of view.

The prospects will not comfort investors: it will take a long time to wait for profits from silver.

They say that in 10 years the silver deposits will be drained of blood by the great states with a high level of industrial development. Then you should expect that silver will be appreciated. Obviously, as a short-term asset, silver will not live up to expectations. A year, two, five is too short a period to draw conclusions about the return on investment.

Silver is used not only in jewelry, on the contrary: only 30% of the metal is used in this area. Only 5% is spent on making investment coins. Surprisingly, only 20% is used for developing photographs. 50% silver is used in the aesthetic design of the interior (figurines, frames for photos and mirrors, candlesticks, etc.). There is reason to believe this information is inaccurate, since a certain percentage of silver is actively used in the IT industry, medicine, and in scanty amounts in related industries. It was the linkage to the economy that determined the dependence of the precious metal on its condition.

Technical innovations are striking in their variety. They are in demand, despite the high cost, regardless of the crisis. But the silver used in their manufacture did not rise in price. Low quotes emerge from the London fixing. The same thing - medicine, the flourishing of photography - all this does not slow down the pace of development, and the dynamics of prices for the "white metal", with all its hesitation, goes lower.

An optimistic analyst cannot give a comforting forecast for 2018 either. Given the general long-term downward trend, surprises are hardly possible.

Long-term investment in silver

There is a summary of facts that position silver as a promising asset. Industrial demand will grow, and with it the price of a gram of gold. Experts highlight a number of circumstances that open up the other side of investing in silver for an investor.

With a high percentage of consumption, the world's silver resources are not that great. The total volume of all deposits known to date is 16 times greater than that of gold. But at the same time, silver available in the form of various industrial products is 4 times more than gold. If we take into account only the physical volume of the metal that is available on the world market, then silver is 10 times less! According to rumors, some mining companies are simply abandoning the white metal due to its lack of demand.

Jumping silver quotes

A powerful jump in the price per ounce occurred in February 2009. Silver cost $ 36, and the rise in price was considered by many to be irrevocable. But the pullback to $ 27 dispelled the general sentiment. The colossal and massive drain of silver led to the depreciation of the ounce in subsequent years. But in 2011, investments in the metal acquired unheard-of proportions, everyone was in a hurry to invest in silver.

This is due to a sharp rise in the price of an ounce in April 2011 - $ 47.8. The heyday of the silver market reached its climax, and many scientists and financial experts started talking about a shortage of silver reserves in the world with unabated industrial demand. Then the same as always - a massive drain of silver, a fall in prices.

Silver quotation in "Sberbank of Russia"

Three years have passed since then, and the price of an ounce of silver has not reached such a high level. By the end of 2012, the situation with quotations stabilized for short periods, and then stagnation came again.

Current silver quotes

Silver quotes are set by the London fixing daily. London fixing is a procedure during which the cost of any precious metal is agreed, according to the dollar exchange rate and other factors. The fixing is established by an association of traders in the London Precious Metals Market.

All national banks are equal to the received quotation.

IN Russian Federation the silver price is set by the Central Bank, and its price level changes every day. The Central Bank fixes the price per gram, despite the fact that precious metals are more conveniently measured in troy ounces, which is the world standard.

The price in the ruble equivalent of 1 gram of silver fluctuates between 40 rubles, namely 38.49 (purchase) and 38.56 rubles. (sale). Consequently, the cost of a troy ounce is 1197 rubles. With technical analysis, you can see insignificant fluctuations in the range of 2-5 rubles.

In dollars, the cost of an ounce is equal to 17.23 (purchase) and 17.26 rubles. (sale) on the international silver market. We remind you that investing in silver should be based on an analysis of fundamental factors, since fluctuations in the stock exchange affect the rate to an insignificant extent.

Silver prices coming soon

The optimistic forecasts related to the reduction of world silver reserves are not being realized. In general, the trends inherent in the dynamics of silver prices are reflected in other precious metals.

Even the world's leading consulting companies, the main consumers of silver, and banks did not expect this. DeutscheBank foreshadowed $ 34 first, then $ 20. HSBC forecasted a low of $ 21 per ounce of silver (up from $ 27). These prices have shifted due to lower demand from the Chinese industry. After that, it became clear to many that the value of silver would not jump over $ 25. $ 19-20 is the ceiling. But even these numbers indicate a revaluation of silver, as today the chart has stopped at $ 17.

Silver to dollar quotes chart

The dynamics of the downtrend is unpredictable, and it is possible that the price of silver will balance. IN reserve funds and a huge amount of metal has accumulated on the market during the general crisis. Industrial demand has dropped. As for the mining companies, the situation is not optimistic: silver mining is problematic and expensive, the extracted raw materials do not cover the cost of its extraction. If the cost of silver is high, selling it at $ 20 an ounce is unprofitable.

What can we expect in the future

It is impossible to promise a rapid growth in quotes in 2018. A positive change in the schedule to at least $ 18.8 will make it clear that not all is lost. But many investors, seeing that a shortage of silver is not expected due to the regression of the world's strongest industrial corporations, leave the precious metals market for exchange-traded funds.

It's easy to make money work for you, profitable investments will increase capital without your participation. One option is to invest in silver. Several investment options and features of this type of passive earnings, advantages and disadvantages.

Money loves silence - this truth needs no proof. And money does not like inactivity - everyone who has managed to achieve financial well-being knows about it.

This is the kind of “quiet work” environment you need to create for the money to come. The most fertile soil for the prosperity of finance can be considered a profitable investment. Investing money in silver is one of the options that allows you to save and increase your fortune.

Experts are confident that the modern commodity market is growing, which means that investments in precious metals are quite promising. The demand for precious metals is constantly increasing, and investments in silver in recent years are more profitable than investments in gold.

Until recently, investors considered the silver market a "safe haven", but today silver is on the rise and its prices continue to rise. This allows us to hope that today's investment in silver will lead to serious profits in a few years.

Why is silver rising in price

The most important advantage of silver is its excellent electrical and thermal conductivity. Therefore, industrial enterprises constantly need this raw material, and its popularity among professional investors is as great as the interest in gold. Investments in gold are, of course, more significant, since these investments are traditionally considered a safe haven from inflation (see ""). However, sustained upward price trends make silver equally attractive.

The dangers of investing in silver

The markets have repeatedly exploded "silver bubbles", while the investors, who put huge fortunes on this card, were left with nothing. Some experts call the current rise in silver prices a “bubble”. Time will tell whether they are right.

Silver is almost always mined as a by-product in the development of gold, zinc, lead or copper. Therefore, silver mining and its presence in the market depends to a large extent on industrial demand for non-ferrous metals. Despite today's encouraging market conditions, investors should be aware of the volatile position of this precious metal due to the complexities of its pricing.

Whether it is profitable to invest in silver is up to you. A certain amount of risk is always present in investing; in the case of silver, the risks are similar to any other investment. However, given the rise in the silver price, this investment looks promising.

Methods of investing money in silver

There are several ways to invest in silver.

Purchase of silver bars from banks

You will have to store the bullion at home - this is the main disadvantage of this method. In this case, you will lose funds by paying VAT. If the bar is damaged, you will pay a commission when you sell it to the bank. It is necessary to keep the certificate and monitor the integrity of the bank packaging.

Placing on a bank deposit

In this case, the income is lower than from the placement of funds in rubles or in foreign currency. On the other hand, the silver deposit is much more stable and almost not subject to inflation. The disadvantage of this investment is that the physical amount of silver is significantly less than its amount in bank accounts. If you want to get savings in silver, it can be difficult.

Purchasing silver coins

This is a real lottery. It is very difficult to sell silver as a product during the crisis. Any damage, scratches, dents significantly lower the price of coins. In addition, with the additional issue of coins, their numismatic value decreases, which can lead to serious losses.

It must be said that with short-term investments, silver does not bring much profit. Only long-term storage of savings in silver makes sense.

The world industry is annually experiencing a deficit in this precious metal - 25% of production. The price of silver is knocked down by leasing contracts, but, in essence, these contracts are not backed by real silver.

This metal is in great demand by the industry, and this is dictated by the increased demand for it, which makes us assume a noticeable rise in price in the coming years. Along with the rise in energy prices, as well as with the rise in living standards in countries that produce silver (for example, Peru, Poland, India), mining costs are also increasing. Along with this, the price of the metal will inevitably rise.

Today silver is the cheapest of the precious metals, but its potential exceeds the prospects of platinum and gold. First of all, because the stock of silver is rapidly declining around the world. Silver is consumed many times faster than gold.

This metal is actively in demand in the production of electronics, in medicine and in military technologies. The jewelry industry is just the tip of this iceberg. At the moment, only two factors prevent silver from occupying a leading position - its recycling, as well as the production of silver along with the extraction of other metals.

Factors to Consider When Investing in Silver

Silver almost does not fall in price even during economic crises.
The world's silver reserves are shrinking from year to year, which will inevitably make this metal rare.
Silver is not a luxury item. Rather, it is a working metal used in production. Crises begin and end, but production continues to develop and requires new resources.

With the right approach to investing in silver, the investment can be very rewarding. Listen to our advice, maybe they will be useful to you:

No need to invest in jewelry made of silver, if it is not a work of art. Price silver jewelry very overpriced, and you can sell them only at the price of scrap.
Silver coins are of little use for making a profit. Income from coins is possible in the very distant future, when they become collectible. In the near future, all profits from such an investment will be absorbed by taxes and the difference in exchange rates if you want to sell coins to the bank.
The same problems will arise when purchasing silver bars. To get tangible profits, there must be a lot of bars. Storing this amount of metal can be difficult, and booking a safe with a bank will reduce your return on investment.
The most profitable investment seems to be attaching a bank account to. In a few years, you will be able to make a nice profit, avoiding unnecessary taxes. With this method of investment, you risk the least.
Another attractive way to make a profitable investment is to buy shares in silver mining companies.

The main rule common to all investments - do not invest in silver during the growth of its rate, so as not to lose part of the funds in case of short-term fluctuations in the price of silver on the world market.

Everyone must answer this question for himself. However, when making a decision, it makes sense to take into account some points that the mass media (dis) information is diligently silent about.

First, a few questions, the answers to which can help in deciding whether to buy silver:

Do you think the ever-decreasing purchasing power of fiat currencies will suddenly start to rise?

Do you think that paper currencies can depreciate to zero, as has happened more than once in the history of mankind?

Do you think the authorities can break their promises regarding social security payments and state pensions?

Do you think central banks will continue to print their candy wrappers to pay off promises from politicians in power?

Do you think that your savings in paper currencies and other paper instruments are completely safe and will not be affected by the actions of the authorities?

Do you think gold and silver will retain their value when fiat currencies depreciate?

Do you think it is possible that the whole world will suddenly stop using silver?

And finally, what do you think is more reliable - silver coins in your safe or paper currencies and promises of politicians?

Now to the topic. First of all, silver (like gold) has no counterparty risk. Silver is valuable in itself and is not someone's obligation. Silver coins - American "Eagles", Australian "Kookaburras", Canadian " Maple leaves", Chinese" pandas ", Austrian" philharmonics ", Mexican" pesos "and others - are recognizable in any country in the world and are equally appreciated everywhere. Moreover, regardless of when and by what government they were minted. This is how they fundamentally differ from paper currencies.

Silver has been used as money for over three thousand years, and in the vast majority of cultures, it was this precious metal, not gold, that served the day-to-day settlements. In the United States, silver coins were not minted until the 1960s.

The purchasing power of fiat currencies has been steadily declining. And if a hundred years ago it took about $ 20 to buy an ounce of gold, and about $ 1.3 for an ounce of silver, now it takes 1600 and 35 units of American banknotes, usually mistaken for US dollars.

The most frequently reported historical ratio of gold and silver prices is 1 to 15 - 16, but in different periods the range was slightly wider than 1 to 10 - 20. In the last decade, this ratio ranged from 1 to 100 to 1 to 17, and currently it is equal to about 1 in 45 - 46. With a high degree of probability, it can be predicted that as precious metals restore their de jure monetary functions, it will decrease, and taking into account the accumulated reserves of precious metals in the world, it cannot be ruled out that this ratio may then the periods go down to 1 to 1 or even less.

At the moment, silver is significantly cheaper than gold and is much more available for purchase by a wider range of potential buyers. Considering the above, investing in silver can be a much more profitable investment of free funds than in gold. In addition to the growing demand for this precious metal, a wider range of potential buyers will provide more high level liquidity of this metal.

And at the end of this article, I would like to note that most people, for a variety of reasons, do nothing to protect their financial future. And you?

Should you invest in silver, platinum, palladium in 2016?

Investments in precious metals have always looked attractive. However, in recent years there has been a drop in quotations on the stock exchange, although before that there was an increase for more than 10 years. What caused the price movement for silver, platinum and palladium? Is it worth investing in these metals? The answers to these questions are in the current review.

Similar features

Silver, platinum and palladium have a number of general characteristics... These are technical metals - unlike gold. It is in industry that they are indispensable.

Therefore, the industrial development of countries and the growth of the world economy determine most of the demand for them. But at the same time, these metals are traded on the exchange. And this fact makes their prices highly dependent on speculators. Quotes can fluctuate quite significantly. Although not to the same extent as the prices of individual stocks. According to the results of the last three years, there has been a shortage of silver, platinum and palladium in the world. But at the same time, their cost has been steadily declining.

Only an increase in the deficit to 20-30% helped to raise the prices of platinum and palladium in 2014.
The reason for the fall in quotations is the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy and the reduction in liquidity. As you know, to get out of the 2008 crisis, the Federal Reserve System lowered its key rate to zero and started pumping up the economy with money - that is, to carry out a quantitative easing program. In many ways, this is why plummeted commodity prices have recovered.

At the end of 2014, the third round of this program was curtailed. The pumping of money into the system stopped, there was less of it - and as a result, investors began to withdraw from precious metals. In addition, at the end of 2015, the Fed announced an increase in the discount rate. That is, the current collapse is due to the end of the era of cheap money. Although physical supply and demand still play a role.

Supercycles and their impact

There is one more important point worth highlighting. This is the presence of the so-called supercycles with a duration of 30-35 years. Based on this theory, the current supercycle began in the 2000s. It was driven by the growth of the Chinese economy and the popularization of commodity trading on the exchange. Last years can be called a price peak. But for the next 10-15 years, we can expect a decline in prices for all raw materials, or fluctuations at low levels. However, even within the framework of this theory, one can count on short-term 5-year bursts of activity. You should also take into account the factor of inflation, because of which the cost of goods should still slowly rise.
If we take the theory of supercycles out of the brackets, then the current prices for precious metals look attractive. They are at cost levels. But if the theory of supercycles is correct, then it is possible that a significant increase in prices will have to wait about 10 years.

Silver

Silver is a technical metal, half of the demand for which comes from the industry. Moreover, this demand is very diverse. From microelectronics to medicine. The mining market around the world is also complex and diversified.
But at the same time, silver has historically been linked to gold. Unlike platinum and palladium, it served as money for a long time. Correlation with the quotes of the yellow metal is very high (although silver is more volatile). Investments still account for 20-25% of the demand for silver. And another 20-25% is jewelry.

There has been a shortage of metal for the past three years. But, despite the deficit of 10%, in 2013 there was a collapse in prices - precisely because of the fall in gold quotes. In 2014-2015. the deficit of 3-4% remained, and the prices on the exchange continued to decline. Dollar deflation was the reason. Gold rises when the dollar weakens and vice versa. And silver follows gold.

Also, the slowdown in the PRC economy led to a decrease in industrial demand and a shrinkage of the jewelry market. As a result, investing in silver has ceased to be relevant.
At the moment, producers expect a drop in production in the coming years. Considering that prices are already at the cost price level, there is a potential for a reversal.

However, with the Fed tightening monetary policy (the rate is going to be raised further), gold will not grow. This means that silver has a limited upside. The situation will change if dollar inflation starts in the United States - either as a result of natural processes or due to the intervention of the Fed.

Platinum

The demand for this metal in the industry is 60%. Moreover, 40% - in the automotive industry. The binding to gold is negligible. Platinum has never been used as money. But it is historically more expensive than gold. Therefore, with a decrease in prices for the yellow metal, its quotes also fall. Although addiction is not always manifested.
The most important use of platinum is as catalysts in diesel engines. That is, the state of the auto industry plays a key role in pricing. Another 20% is the rest of the industry. A third of the mined metal goes to Jewelry(also a significant factor). But only 10% is used for investment purposes.
The main production is concentrated in South Africa (70%). The second place belongs to Russia - 15%.

Three previous years there was a deficit of metal - 10-20%. But in 2013 and 2015, prices went down. And only a deficit of 20% in 2014 was able to raise quotations. Mass strikes began in mines in South Africa (a key region). As a result, investing in platinum has become a good idea in the market. But as soon as the deficit narrowed to 10%, and the Fed announced an imminent increase in the key rate, prices went down again.
Platinum quotes are now approaching the cost at the mines.

Therefore, there is a potential for a reversal. But if the global economy continues to slow down, then growth should not be expected. Problems in China, the possibility of a crisis in the United States - all these are risk factors. At the same time, manufacturers expect the imbalance to level out and even a possible surplus in the market. New unrest in mines in South Africa may raise prices.

Palladium

This metal is completely technical. Moreover, 80% is in demand in the automotive industry. Another 10-15% is in electrical engineering and other sectors. And only a few percent are accounted for by jewelry and investments. There is practically no binding to gold.

The largest palladium producer is Russia - 40%. Another 40% is produced by South Africa. When there were strikes at mines in this country, the metal deficit rose to 30% in 2014. This pushed prices up. But as soon as the deficit fell to 7%, prices plummeted against the backdrop of tightening the Fed's monetary policy. In 2013, with a deficit of 10%, palladium quotations stagnated.
For this metal - as well as for platinum - the imbalance is expected to level out in 2016.

Therefore, if the world economy does not grow, then a further decline in prices is likely. But if there are positive macro statistics in China and in the West, then an investment in palladium can be a good investment. It is also worth considering the possibility of renewed conflicts at mines in South Africa. In Russia, supply disruptions are not expected.

Final conclusion

At the moment, the base for price growth in the long term is being formed on the precious metals market. Current exchange quotes are at the level of production costs. For this reason, investments in the industry will continue to decline, and some of the mines will be decommissioned. However, due to the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy and the possibility of a slowdown in the global economy, further price reductions are also possible.

If quotes on the stock exchange fail from the current levels, it is recommended to buy precious metals with an eye to a long investment horizon. The optimal point of entry into the market is the announcement of a change in the vector of monetary policy in the United States. Also, the summer months are traditionally considered a favorable period for investing in precious metals. This is especially true for Russians, since in summer, the ruble is often strengthened. However, the price reversal may not take place directly in 2016. And the end of the supercycle in commodities may indicate that the recovery in quotations will begin only a few years later.
Silver looks the most attractive.

In the long term, production is expected to decline and the deficit is likely to increase. For this reason, and also because of the peg to gold, the downside potential for silver can be called limited. But the rise in prices - in the event the Fed announces new stimulus programs - can be quite significant. If the Fed changes the course of its monetary policy, that is, it cuts the rate again or even starts new infusions of money, then the risk of inflation will return. At current levels, this will lead to an increase in gold and silver. Another factor in the increase in quotations may be positive development world economy.

Coming from the RF Armed Forces a year and a half ago, I found the accumulated funds during my absence from various partner programs in the amount of about 50K rubles. Plus, I had over 100,000 rubles in a book in Sberbank. I began to save this money on the sly, having read several books on achieving financial independence a la "Rich Dad Poor Dad". Someone, of course, spits on them, they say, these authors only cash in on books, and they themselves have not earned a penny. But nevertheless, they provide basic concepts. The truths in them seem to be simple, but 95% of people do not reach them with their minds, simply not thinking about the "rat race", assets / liabilities and so on. I don't remember in which of them I got the term "financial safety cushion", but I liked its idea and I started to create it for myself.

Financial safety cushion- this is when you have a certain amount of money that will allow you to live at least six months or a year without significantly reducing the standard of living.

Surprisingly, many people spend all the money they make and then bite their elbows when they get laid off / lose business and new job within a month it is not possible to find. I had accumulated a sufficient amount so that I could live just about a year, but a natural question arose: where to put them?

There was not much choice. All stocks, bonds, futures and options require careful study and an impressive amount of money.
I don't know why, but instead of the usual deposit at the standard 10%, I began to look closely at precious metals. It is like a long-term investment, metals are always in price and are slowly growing.

Gold, platinum, palladium, silver are bought primarily in order to preserve savings, to protect themselves from inflation and depreciation of money.

The precious metals market is more stable compared to the securities market and investments in various funds, be it mutual funds or OFBU.

If we consider the change in the price of metals for 10 years, then the maximum yield is shown by silver (+ 661%) and gold (+ 614.5%). Platinum has risen in price by almost 320% in 10 years. But palladium is only 152%.
This indicator suggests that in the long term, all metals provide good returns and their purchase is a very profitable investment.

In Russia, several different methods are now available to invest in gold and other precious metals: buying bullion, coins, opening a metal account in a bank, purchased securities of gold mining companies or shares backed by gold.

Most of these expressions assured me of the reliability of this type of investment. And as far as I remember, only a couple of dozens of articles I read warned that the economy is cyclical and, in general, metal prices are greatly inflated and do not correspond to the truth. In another article I read that the prices for gold are inflated and they will soon collapse rapidly, but there is less and less silver on the Earth, because It is actively used in industry, in the manufacture of something there for technology, so silver quotes may rise sharply in the next few years. For some reason, I immediately believed and ran to the bank to buy exactly silver.

In my town, despite the presence of a heap of branches of large banks, only Sberbank carried out operations with precious metals. I decided not to bother and open an account in OMS - an impersonal metal account, tk. the sale is not subject to VAT (which is + 18% to the nominal value of the metal), and then another 13% income tax, in contrast to physical ingots.

As of July 9, 2012, for the Penza region (they differ), it was possible to buy silver for 31.5 rubles / g. My savings were just enough for 5 kg of silver = 157,500 rubles. The procedure went quickly and painlessly due to the fact that I had money on my book also in Sberbank, and the account itself was tied to WebMoney. So the entire amount was simply transferred to the OMS, giving me a new book with 5 kg of silver only in numbers:

Nothing boded trouble, I occasionally looked at the dynamics of changes in quotations, noting that the fluctuations were insignificant and, in fact, the price of silver was at the same level, until at one unpleasant moment in the spring of 2013 I saw the following picture:

And, unfortunately, it continues to deteriorate today. Today you can buy at 22.9 rubles. per gram, and sell at 19 !!! Those. upon sale, I will receive only 95,000 rubles, having lost 62K rubles as a result.

Investing in gold

Gold, as well as all other precious metals, also fell significantly in price. I calculated that if I had invested the same money in gold, then I had 90.4 grams on my account (1,742 rubles / gram at that time).
Now gold costs 1256 r / g, which means I would get 113 542 rubles. (- 44K). Better than the situation with silver, of course, but still bad.

Here is your "reliable long-term investment". Not that they didn’t save it from inflation, but reduced it by another third. You don't need to be an analyst to understand that there is definitely no hope of recovery even to the previous rate in the next 5 years.

Summarizing

This is how I incorrectly tried to create a financial cushion for myself. Surprisingly, but practically not upset, because the amount is not so big to tear the hair out there on the ass. But the experience of investing appeared and the understanding that any investment is a risk, and when investing, you need to mentally part with your money, and it makes no sense to read various forecasts and blindly trust them.